The firm’s economists warned clients in a research note on Thursday that the risk of a global recession has gone up to 60 percent, assuming Trump’s new trade policies are sustained. In their analysis, the new tariffs will likely amount to “the largest tax hike since WWII” for Americans.

The move follows Trump's tariff announcement on April 2, where he instituted a 10% baseline tariff on all countries and much higher rates on many. He put a 34% tariff on China, though combined with preexisting tariffs, the effective rate is 54%.