On April 16, my naive model predicted that total U.S. deaths from the beginning of the pandemic to April 30, would be 58,185. In contrast, the first of the IMHE forecasts projected that total ...

To be fair, we can find more traction by looking for a mean-reversion factor, but that task is a higher-level challenge vs. naive risk forecasting. How far out you can push a simple risk forecast ...

Associative Model (68): Forecasting Technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand. Bias (93): Persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater or less than the actual values of a ...