5 p.m. Update: Erin is now organizing and strengthening over the Central Atlantic. Erin is expected to become at least a Catgory 3 hurricane but missing Puerto Rico to the north and staying well east of Florida. It is expected to reach Jacksonville’s latitude about early Wednesday, resulting in some rough seas and surf at area beaches next week.

It continues to push toward the northern Leeward Islands, where tropical storm watches are now in effect as of the 8 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center. Intensification is expected as Erin moves toward warmer ocean temperatures over the next several days.